NBA Picks & Expert Basketball Predictions

Jalen Williams has gone UNDER 32.5 in two of the three games versus the Pacers and 10 of the last 15 dating back to Game 1 of the second round against the Denver Nuggets. Now he did go OVER in Game 3 with 26 points, six rebounds, and three assists, but something the 24-year-old wing has failed to do during this stretch is put performances like that together consecutively.

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The PRA department has been a touch more kind to Alex Caruso, as he's exceeded 15.5 in every game of the Finals while coming off the bench. He just ed a line of eight points, five rebounds, and four assists in 32 minutes on Wednesday, although his plus-minus rating of -15 was far and away the worst of any player on Oklahoma City.

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Tyrese Haliburton only averaged 3.5 rebounds across 73 appearances during the regular season, but through three games of the Finals, he's more than doubled that by contributing 7.3 boards per contest. There were only 12 occasions in which he grabbed six or more rebounds, but he's already done so six times in the playoffs.

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Obi Toppin has actually taken the fifth-most shots against the Thunder with 25, including 16 from behind the arc. He's averaging 9.3 points in 24.1 minutes in the Finals, but of the nine players on Indiana contributing better than nine per game, Toppin ranks the lowest.

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Sportsbook has a same-game parlay for Game 4 of the 2025 NBA Finals between the Indiana Pacers and visiting Oklahoma City Thunder at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Friday night at +800 value.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has only gone OVER 33.5 points in two of the eight road playoff games he's competed in thus far.

Tyrese Haliburton has ended with at least nine rebounds in two of the three meetings with the Thunder, including nine in Game 3, and he's in the midst of a four-game OVER streak in games played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. 

Pascal Siakam finished with exactly four assists in Games 2 and 3, respectively, and has gone OVER 3.5 assists in three of his last five games.

McConnell has had an understated impact on the 2025 NBA Finals, coming off the bench to lead the Pacers second-unit with his trademark defense and tenacity. He's also been consistent scoring the basketball, ing at least nine points in each Finals game thus far. 

In fact, McConnell has scored at least seven points in seven of his last nine games, while averaging 8.6 a night. Plus, he's shooting a wildly efficient 54% from the field in that time frame, and is knocking down 36% of threes. Working even further in our favor, McConnell has put up 10.1 points a game at home in nine games this postseason. 

Crucially, Toppin has exceeded 4.5 rebounds in four of his last five games while averaging 5.2 a night. Plus, he's averaged 8.2 rebounding chances a game in that timeframe. And man, when he finds an offensive rebound he likes, Toppin can soar through the air to put it back. On a hardcourt full of athletic freaks, Toppin may be the most athletic player on the floor. Intriguingly, per our friends at BetMGM, Toppin UNDER 4.5 rebounds is the most bet player prop, so we're making the contrarian play.

OKC has struggled on the glass for much of the season, and has lost the rebounding battle in two of three games so far. Toppin's averaged 23 minutes a night in the Finals, and played nearly 28 in Game 3. Expect to see Toppin soar through the air for a few more boards in Game 4. 

Despite their reputations as high-flying offenses, this 1st quarter under play has hit in four straight Pacers games, and eight of the the last nine Thunder contests.

This line has hit in all three NBA Finals games so far, so it's tough to envision an early offensive explosion in Game 4. Both coaches and their squads will be using the first quarter as a game of chess, looking to test out new solutions to each other's offensive and defensive schemes. 

As such, expect a cagey affair, especially early on Friday night.

Find out why Nick likes Obi Toppin and TJ McConnell in tonight's Game 4 NBA Finals same-game parlay!