U.S. Open Odds: Scheffler Faces His Sternest Test

The imposing and infamous “church pew” bunkers, the immense sloping greens, the lack of water hazards and abundance of rough. Oakmont Country Club is an iconic U.S. Open venue—and the national championship returns to the western Pennsylvania course for a record 10th time this week, with red-hot Scottie Scheffler as the +280 odds favorite to win at Sportsbook.

  

Be sure to check out the Odds Shark U.S. Open picks and predictions page.

2025 U.S. Open odds

Odds as of June 12 at Sportsbook

The place is renowned for its difficulty—in nine previous U.S. Opens, no winner has finished the tournament lower than 5-under, and twice the champion has been over par. Expect narrow fairways and penalizing rough, the kind of setup that made the U.S. Open famous before the USGA began pulling back on course difficulty. There will be no 50-yard wide fairways like Los Angeles Country Club in 2024, no forgiving waste areas like Pinehurst No. 2 last year. This will be no tournament for the meek.

No wonder, then, that the heavy favorite is world No. 1 Scheffler, who’s won three of his last four starts including the PGA Championship in May. Rory McIlroy and the LIV pair of Byron DeChambeau and Jon Rahm follow on the odds board—and each of those players already owns a U.S. Open title, unlike the guy they’re all chasing.

SI's Iain MacMillan ed Andrew Avery on The Huddle to discuss the U.S. Open odds and provide his best bets. You can see the full show below. 

Why Scottie Scheffler is Favored to Win the U.S. Open

back in April, when we were all wondering when Scheffler was finally going to win? Those days are long gone. Scheffler has been on a tear over his last six tournaments, during which he’s won three times, once finished second, and never placed worse than eighth. While he’s never won the U.S. Open, he has finished second and third. Scheffler is the best player on the planet, and he’s at his peak, making him the natural odds favorite to win this week.

  

Is Rory McIlroy Overvalued is U.S. Open Odds?

The bloom from McIlroy’s cathartic Masters victory seems to have faded, as evidenced by the results from his last two starts—T47 at the PGA Championship, and a missed cut at the Canadian Open. Those results are concerning, given that McIlroy had won the PGA Tour event at Quail Hollow four times, and won the Canadian twice.

Is the nonconforming driver issue from the PGA still dogging him? McIlroy has finished second in the U.S. Open in each of the past two years, but it’s still natural to wonder if his odds value this week is in line with his recent results.

U.S. Open Betting Tips

The last time the U.S. Open was at Oakmont, in 2016, Dustin Johnson won at 4-under. The course has undergone substantial changes since then, with length added and the wickedly fast and tilted greens restored to their 1940s dimensions. While nothing is guaranteed, on paper this for all the world looks like the most daunting U.S. Open venue since Shinnecock Hills in 2018, where Brooks Koepka won at 1-over.

That event produced a glittering final leaderboard, with seven current or future major champions in the top-10. That potential certainly exists at Oakmont, particularly given how well the likes of Scheffler, DeChambeau and Jon Rahm have been performing in majors as of late.

The Spaniard has awoken from his LIV-induced slumber to finish top-10 in two of his last three majors, and was in contention down the stretch at the PGA Championship in May. And don’t discount McIlroy, who’s been top-10 in six straight U.S. Opens, including solo second in each of the last two.

Who else could contend at Oakmont? Hideki Matsuyama has been top-10 in two of his past three U.S. Opens, while Patrick Cantlay has been top-15 in four straight—including a career-best T3 last year. Collin Morikawa with his excellent iron play certainly has the type of game to excel in a U.S. Open, where he’s been 14th or better in each of the last four years. And among potential long shots there’s +7000 Ben Griffin, who followed his T8 at the PGA with a win at the Charles Schwab and a solo second at the Memorial Signature Event.

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